chiouyihung APEC通訊

在地緣政治風險升高陰影下迂迴前進的亞太經濟整合

2017年是全球經濟發展呈現撲朔迷離的一年。對自由開放的全球經濟趨勢與亞太區域持續經濟整合的發展而言，川普當選後貿易保護主義色彩鮮明的美國，無疑是最重要的不確定因素。本文分析受到川普衝擊下的亞太區域整合之近期發展。筆者並認為，受到川普貿易保護主義衝擊的影響，將迫使亞太各國進一步思考應如何面對缺乏美國領導的亞太經貿秩序，且激發更多的動機與努力來維繫自由開放的亞太經貿秩序。

美國總統川普於今(2017)年初宣布退出跨太平洋夥伴協定(TPP)，8月重啟與加拿大及墨西哥的北美自由貿易協定(NAFTA)談判；並針對中國強迫美國企業技術轉移及竊取智慧財產權等行為啟動美國貿易法的「301條款」調查等作為，皆凸顯川普在美國優先政策下對當今全球經貿秩序所造成的重大衝擊。

但另一方面，我們也看到支持自由貿易與反對保護主義的區域整合運動持續邁進。例如今年6月底在德國漢堡舉辦G20峰會，與會領袖發表聯合公報指出將持續堅守市場開放與打擊保護主義。緊接著日本─歐盟自由貿易協定(Japan-EU EPA)在7月初達成框架協定，隨後不久歐盟即宣布與加拿大簽署的全面性經濟與貿易協定(CETA)將於9月實施。在大型區域協定方面，TPP在美國退出下，其他11個成員國仍持續談判商討未來TPP-11的進展，並期望在年底完成談判。

此兩股相反的趨勢顯示，全球間促進經濟自由化與區域整合的力道，儘管在去年接連遭受英國脫歐與川普當選後貿易保護主義的重創，但並未因此消失匿跡。反而是各國在審時度勢後，仍有志一同地持續朝更自由開放的貿易環境迂迴前進，而不是陷入相互提高關稅、競相保護國內市場之以鄰為壑(bagger-thy-neighbor)的惡性循環。本文目的在分析受到川普衝擊下的亞太區域整合之近期發展。此外，受到川普貿易保護主義衝擊影響，此將迫使亞太各國進一步思考應如何面對缺乏美國領導的亞太經貿秩序。此類思考與反省不僅不會讓更多國家步入美國後塵而走向保護主義，反而激發更多的動機與努力來維繫自由開放的亞太經貿秩序。……全文刊於 APEC通訊，217期，民106年10月(PDF)

chiouyihung Taipei Times

US protectionism is not working

Eric Chiou,  Oct. 9, 2017  in Taipei Times

This year has gradually revealed itself to be an exciting roller-coaster journey characterized by several astonishing ups and downs in the global economy.

The expected tsunami of trade protectionism, primarily stirred up by US President Donald Trump’s intriguing “America first” agenda and aggravated by the withdrawal of the UK from the EU — the so-called “Brexit” — has surprisingly not invoked broadly devastating effects on the global economy, nor has it undermined the solid direction of global free trade as many pundits expected.

Although Trump’s rhetoric of economic nationalism has not yet caused any conspicuous damage, compared with the remarkable progress of economic globalization in the past two decades, optimistic prospects for the world economy have been irrefutably overshadowed by a rising skepticism over globalization and the looming storm of trade protectionism, which has not been seen since the 1999 WTO protest in Seattle.

Trump’s “America first” agenda has mainly focused on job creation and a reduction of the trade deficit by encouraging manufacturing firms to shift their production back to the US and by renegotiating the terms of trade deals to be more favorable to the US, while wielding the stick of trade sanctions to accomplish the goal of boosting sales of US goods in overseas markets….Full Text in Taipei Times Link